Wrangling Probabilism in LLMs: Making Machines Say What We Mean The Illusion of Certainty Talking to a Large Language Model (LLM or just ‘model’ henceforth) in a chat application like ChatGPT or Claude can feel like trying to describe a dream; sometimes it captures your thoughts with uncanny accuracy, other times it drifts into peculiar and unexpected territory. It usually responds with impressive coherence, often mimicking the tone and confidence of authoritative sources. That’s because these models are “post-trained” with human evaluators who are typically experts, and models pick up on their commanding and self-confident emanations. This stylistic precision creates an impression of reliability, depending on the reader’s level of skepticism, which makes it difficult even for those familiar with the inner workings of LLMs to distinguish between factual […]
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